Understanding learning through uncertainty and bias

Learning allows humans and other animals to make predictions about the environment that facilitate adaptive behavior. Casting learning as predictive inference can shed light on normative cognitive mechanisms that improve predictions under uncertainty. Drawing on normative learning models, we illustrate how learning should be adjusted to different sources of uncertainty, including perceptual uncertainty, risk, and uncertainty due to environmental changes. Such models explain many hallmarks of human learning in terms of specific statistical considerations that come into play when updating predictions under uncertainty. However, humans also display systematic learning biases that deviate from normative models, as studied in computational psychiatry. Some biases can be explained as normative inference conditioned on inaccurate prior assumptions about the environment, while others reflect approximations to Bayesian inference aimed at reducing cognitive demands. These biases offer insights into cognitive mechanisms underlying learning and how they might go awry in psychiatric illness.