Increasing child vaccination coverage can reduce influenza cases across age groups: An agent-based modeling study.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Vaccinology

Background:

• The introduction of caregiver-administered nasal spray live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) presents an opportunity to enhance influenza vaccination coverage.
• Increased vaccination rates in school-aged children can yield substantial direct and indirect public health benefits across all age demographics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the impact of increased influenza vaccination uptake in school-aged children (5-17 years) on overall influenza epidemiology using an agent-based model.
• To quantify the potential reduction in influenza cases and hospitalizations across different age groups resulting from enhanced child vaccination.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Framework for Reproducing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED), an agent-based model incorporating US census data and individual characteristics.
• Simulated increased vaccine uptake scenarios among school-aged children (5-17 years) to assess effects on influenza incidence and hospitalization rates by age.

Main Results:

• A 5%-15% increase in vaccination rates among school-aged children led to a 3.2%-10.9% decrease in their symptomatic cases and a 3.3%-11.6% decrease overall.
• Estimated annual reductions range from 522,867-1,810,170 cases in school-aged children and 1,394,687-4,945,952 cases overall.
• Potential decrease in annual US hospitalizations by up to 49,977, with the most significant impact observed in individuals aged 65 and older (23,258).

Conclusions:

• Increasing influenza vaccination coverage in school-aged children through LAIV can positively influence influenza dynamics across all age segments.
• The strategy highlights the potential for targeted childhood vaccination programs to generate widespread community protection against influenza.