Spatial modeling and risk assessment of chagas disease vector distribution in Espírito Santo, Brazil: A comprehensive...

Chagas disease, a persistent and life-threatening infection caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, remains a significant public health concern in Latin America. Despite the Brazilian State of Espírito Santo (ES) not being classified as a high-risk area, the presence of epidemiologically significant triatomines like Panstrongylus megistus suggests a latent risk of T. cruzi transmission. This study, employing spatial modeling, assesses the distribution of key triatomine species in ES and predicts areas at risk for Chagas disease transmission. Our models, constructed with Maxent, KUENM, and QGIS, identified high suitability for most species in ES's southeast and south regions, with P. diasi showing high suitability in the central-west. Notably, 13 autochthonous cases of vector-borne Chagas disease were reported between 2001 and 2023. The risk assessment highlighted significant risk areas corresponding to the locations of these cases, indicating that most regions in ES are at higher risk of P. megistus presence. These findings provide crucial insights for enhancing regional epidemiological surveillance and inform targeted vector control strategies, effectively addressing latent risks.