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Proxy inconsistency and other problems in millennial paleoclimate reconstructions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·2009
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Extended crop yield meta-analysis data do not support upward SCC revision.

Ross McKitrick1

  • 1Department of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada. Ross.mckitrick@uoguelph.ca.

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|February 15, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Reanalyzing crop yield data reveals that global crop yields may not decline with warming, contrary to previous estimates used for the Social Cost of Carbon. This finding challenges current climate economic models.

Keywords:
Agricultural yieldsCarbon dioxide fertilizationClimate changeSocial cost of carbon

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Area of Science:

  • Climate change economics
  • Agricultural science
  • Environmental policy

Background:

  • The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimate was recently increased significantly by the Biden Administration.
  • This increase was partly based on projections of global crop yield declines due to warming.
  • The original projections utilized a meta-analysis database from 2014 with substantial data limitations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To re-examine the meta-analysis database used for SCC calculations.
  • To assess the impact of data completeness on projected global crop yield changes under warming scenarios.
  • To provide a more accurate estimate of climate change impacts on agriculture.

Main Methods:

  • Re-analyzing the original meta-analysis dataset by recovering missing data points.
  • Expanding the dataset from 862 to 1222 records through data recovery.
  • Performing multivariate regression modeling on the augmented dataset.

Main Results:

  • The original dataset suggested yield declines for all crops even at low warming levels.
  • The re-analyzed, larger dataset indicates zero or positive global average yield changes.
  • These positive or neutral yield changes persist even up to 5°C of warming.

Conclusions:

  • The re-analysis suggests that the impact of warming on global crop yields may be less severe than previously estimated.
  • The findings challenge the basis for the recent increase in the Social Cost of Carbon.
  • Further research with comprehensive data is needed to accurately model climate change impacts on agriculture.