Rate-induced biosphere collapse in the Daisyworld model.
Constantin W Arnscheidt1, Hassan Alkhayuon2
1Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1SB, United Kingdom.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|February 18, 2025
Summary
Rapid environmental changes can cause ecosystems to collapse. In the classic Daisyworld model, fast changes in sunlight (insolation) can lead to the extinction of life, demonstrating rate-induced tipping.
Area of Science:
- Earth System Science
- Ecological Dynamics
- Climate Modeling
Background:
- Rate-induced tipping describes abrupt system shifts due to rapid forcing changes.
- The Daisyworld model illustrates emergent temperature regulation by life.
- Understanding tipping points is crucial for Earth system science.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze rate-induced tipping in the classic Daisyworld model.
- To investigate the impact of rapid insolation changes on Daisyworld's ecosystem.
- To explore the conditions under which life in Daisyworld may go extinct.
Main Methods:
- Mathematical analysis of the Daisyworld model under changing insolation.
- Investigation of the system's dynamics relative to the stable manifold of a saddle point.
- Simulation of transient forcing scenarios exceeding critical rates.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated rate-induced tipping in the Daisyworld model.
- Showed that rapid insolation increases can cause ecosystem collapse (extinction).
- Confirmed that extinction can occur even if the final state is survivable.
Conclusions:
- Rate-induced tipping is a potential mechanism for ecosystem collapse in simple models.
- The findings suggest that rapid environmental change can be catastrophic.
- This study provides evidence for the prevalence of rate-induced tipping in diverse systems.
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