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Metapopulations, the Inflationary Effect, and Consequences for Public Health.

Nicholas Kortessis, Gregory Glass, Andrew Gonzalez

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    Spatiotemporal heterogeneity, the variation in space and time, enhances population stability and abundance in metapopulation dynamics. This inflationary effect, crucial for ecological persistence, was observed even in infectious disease spread.

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    Area of Science:

    • Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
    • Population Dynamics
    • Spatial Ecology

    Background:

    • Metapopulation models explain regional stability through linked populations.
    • Regional stability often exceeds local stability due to dispersal and heterogeneity.
    • The 'inflationary effect' of spatiotemporal heterogeneity and dispersal is key.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To highlight the underappreciated role of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in metapopulation biology.
    • To introduce a novel expression for quantifying the inflationary effect.
    • To provide a mechanistic interpretation of how this effect influences population dynamics.

    Main Methods:

    • Conceptual analysis of metapopulation dynamics.
    • Development of a quantitative expression for the inflationary effect.
    • Illustrative examples from infectious disease modeling and conservation biology.

    Main Results:

    • Spatiotemporal heterogeneity, combined with dispersal, drives regional population stability (inflationary effect).
    • A new mathematical expression quantifies this inflationary effect.
    • Policy decisions during COVID-19 may have increased heterogeneity, enhancing disease spread.

    Conclusions:

    • Spatiotemporal heterogeneity is essential for understanding population persistence and emergent ecological processes.
    • The inflationary effect is a fundamental concept across various ecological fields.
    • Future research must embrace complexity for accurate population persistence predictions.