A binary trait model reveals the fitness effects of HIV-1 escape from T cell responses

Natural selection often acts on multiple traits simultaneously. For example, the virus HIV-1 faces pressure to evade host immunity while also preserving replicative fitness. While past work has studied selection during HIV-1 evolution, as in other examples where selection acts on multiple traits, it is challenging to quantitatively separate different contributions to fitness. This task is made more difficult because a single mutation can affect both immune escape and replication. Here, we develop an evolutionary model that disentangles the effects of escaping CD8⁺ T cell-mediated immunity, which we model as a binary trait, from other contributions to fitness. After validation in simulations, we applied this model to study within-host HIV-1 evolution in a clinical dataset. We observed strong selection for immune escape, sometimes greatly exceeding past estimates, especially early in infection. Conservative estimates suggest that roughly half of HIV-1 fitness gains during the first months to years of infection can be attributed to T cell escape. Our approach is not limited to HIV-1 or viruses and could be adapted to study the evolution of quantitative traits in other contexts.