Concurrent trajectories of occupational groups and sustainable working life-a Swedish twin cohort study over 16 years

We aimed to examine concurrent trajectories of occupational groups and level of sustainable working life, and individuals' characteristics as predictors for the trajectories. National register data from 81,388 Swedish twins born in 1925-1990 included occupational groups. To define the level of sustainable working life, employment, unemployment, sickness absence, and disability pensions in 2001-2016 were used. Group-based multi-trajectory modeling and multinomial regression for relative risks (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were applied. Five trajectory groups (4.4-20.8%) showed stable occupational groups and stable sustainable working life over time. Two trajectory groups had a decrease in sustainable working life: 6.1% were between being building and manufacturing worker, and mechanical manufacturing and transport worker, etc., and 8.7% were stable in occupations in administration and customer service clerks. One group (5.5%) had a stable sustainable working life but shifted from elementary occupations to occupations requiring an advanced higher education level. All studied factors played a role in belonging to the trajectory groups. To conclude, the concurrent changes over time in occupational groups and sustainable working life were stable. A few identified occupational groups had a decrease in sustainable working life over time, thus meriting support across working careers to remain in paid work.