Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting early neurological deterioration in patients with moderate...

Early neurological deterioration (END) greatly affects prognosis of moderate traumatic brain injury (TBI). This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the occurrence of END in patients with moderate TBI.

A total of 371 patients with moderate TBI were enrolled and divided into the training (n = 260) and validation (n = 111) groups at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the significant factors for END, which were used to develop a nomogram. The discrimination of the nomogram was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), the calibration was evaluated using calibration curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the net benefit of the model for patients.

In the training group, multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that GCS score, epidural hematoma, intracerebral hemorrhage, fibrinogen, and D-dimer were independent risk factors for END in patients with moderate TBI. A nomogram was constructed using the logistic regression prediction model. The AUCs of the nomogram in the training and validation groups were 0.901 and 0.927, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the predicted probability was consistent with the actual situation in both the training and validation sets. DCA curves demonstrated significantly better net benefit with the model. Then a web-based calculator was generated to facilitate clinical application.

The present study developed and validated a model to predict END in patients with moderate TBI. The nomogram that had good discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility can provide clinicians with an effective and accurate tool for evaluating the occurrence of END after moderate TBI.