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Projected speaker numbers and dormancy risks of Canada's Indigenous languages.

Michaël Boissonneault1,2, Adam Tallman3, Volker Gast3

  • 1Department of demography and population sciences, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Canada.

Royal Society Open Science
|February 20, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Indigenous language speakers in Canada face significant decline, with over 90% loss projected for 16 languages by 2101. This highlights the urgent need for language revitalization efforts to preserve linguistic diversity.

Keywords:
census dataindigenous languages of Canadainternational decade of indigenous languageslanguage endangermentlinguistic diversitypopulation projection

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Linguistics
  • Sociology

Background:

  • UNESCO's International Decade of Indigenous Languages (2022-2032) highlights the critical threat to global linguistic diversity.
  • The future evolution of speaker numbers and dormancy risks for Indigenous languages remains largely unexamined.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project changes in speaker numbers and dormancy risks for 27 Indigenous languages in Canada.
  • To assess the long-term vitality and potential endangerment of these languages.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Canadian census data from 2001.
  • Employed probabilistic population projection models.
  • Analyzed speaker numbers and dormancy risks for 27 Indigenous languages.

Main Results:

  • Speaker numbers may decline by over 90% for 16 languages between 2001 and 2101.
  • Dormancy risks could exceed 50% for five languages within the same period.
  • By 2101, nine languages may represent over 99% of all Canadian Indigenous language speakers.
  • Dormancy risks are elevated for language isolates and within specific language families.

Conclusions:

  • Demographic projections reveal a severe crisis for Indigenous languages in Canada.
  • The study underscores the uneven nature of language endangerment globally.
  • Probabilistic demographic projection is a valuable tool for assessing language vitality and informing conservation strategies.