Projected speaker numbers and dormancy risks of Canada's Indigenous languages

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Linguistics
• Sociology

Background:

• UNESCO's International Decade of Indigenous Languages (2022-2032) highlights the critical threat to global linguistic diversity.
• The future evolution of speaker numbers and dormancy risks for Indigenous languages remains largely unexamined.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project changes in speaker numbers and dormancy risks for 27 Indigenous languages in Canada.
• To assess the long-term vitality and potential endangerment of these languages.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Canadian census data from 2001.
• Employed probabilistic population projection models.
• Analyzed speaker numbers and dormancy risks for 27 Indigenous languages.

Main Results:

• Speaker numbers may decline by over 90% for 16 languages between 2001 and 2101.
• Dormancy risks could exceed 50% for five languages within the same period.
• By 2101, nine languages may represent over 99% of all Canadian Indigenous language speakers.
• Dormancy risks are elevated for language isolates and within specific language families.

Conclusions:

• Demographic projections reveal a severe crisis for Indigenous languages in Canada.
• The study underscores the uneven nature of language endangerment globally.
• Probabilistic demographic projection is a valuable tool for assessing language vitality and informing conservation strategies.