An Evaluation of the Decline in Primary Care Physician Visits, 2010 to 2021

Primary care is the backbone of the United States healthcare system, yet it continues to be underfunded and inaccessible to many. Previous studies explored primary care visit patterns until 2016, leaving gaps in our understanding of how recent factors like state Medicaid expansions, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and population growth have influenced these patterns. Hence, the objective of the current study was to analyze the trends in primary care visits provided by outpatient clinicians over time and by visit type and contextualize study findings within the changing healthcare landscape.

The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data (2010-2021) were used to examine trends in the total number and share of ambulatory, preventive, acute, and chronic care visits and investigate sociodemographic factors associated with a given clinician visit. The outcome variable was the clinician type: Primary Care Physicians (PCPs), Internal Medicine (IM) subspecialists, and Nurse Practitioners or Physician Assistants or Registered Nurses (NP/PA/RNs). Explanatory variables included gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, region of respondent's residence, income-to-poverty ratio, insurance coverage, number of chronic conditions, and survey year. Univariate, bivariate, and multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed.

The visits led by PCPs and IM subspecialists declined by 43% and 23% between 2010 and 2021, respectively. However, visits led by NP/PA/RNs increased by 98%. From 2010 to 2021, the proportion of preventive care visits provided by PCPs, IMs, and NP/PA/RNs increased by 25%, 7%, and 4%, respectively. PCPs provided fewer acute and chronic care visits in 2021 than in 2010. Regression analyses illustrated that relative to Non-Hispanic White patients, non-White patients had a higher likelihood of seeing PCPs. Patients reporting 1 chronic condition were more likely to obtain care from an IM or NP/PA/RN than a PCP. In contrast, those with 2 or more chronic conditions had a greater propensity to see PCP than NP/PA/RN.

Despite a growing need for primary care services, the decrease in visits to PCPs is concerning and requires further examination. The declining trends in acute and chronic care visits raise questions as to whether primary care, in its current form, can continue to provide its essential attributes and services.