Proposal to estimate the required resources for healthcare

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Health Economics
• Healthcare Management

Background:

• The population without social security in Mexico City faces challenges in accessing healthcare.
• Accurate estimation of healthcare resource needs is crucial for effective health system planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a method for estimating healthcare resource requirements for the uninsured population in Mexico City.
• To project domestic healthcare resource needs, including access and coverage.

Main Methods:

• Calculating the percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) allocated to healthcare.
• Utilizing the Medical-Technical Baseline Cost (MTBC) or Medical Economic Card (MEC) standards.
• Projecting prospective resource requirements based on diagnosis and treatment for the uninsured population.

Main Results:

• A significant shortfall in healthcare resources is projected for 2024.
• Prospective per capita healthcare costs are higher than historical costs at both first and second levels of care.
• Mexico City shows a 42% difference between historical and prospective healthcare GDP allocation, with a 19% national shortfall.

Conclusions:

• The proposed prospective budgeting approach enhances the certainty and granularity of healthcare resource requirement estimations.
• This method can inform policy decisions to address healthcare resource gaps.