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Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure
Mengxuan Lin1, Pengyuan Nie1, Qunjiao Yan1
1Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA, Beijing, China.
Introduction:
China had already experienced two COVID-19 epidemics since the promulgation of 10 new prevention and control measures in December 2022.
Methodology:
In response to the current frequent epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants in China and the gradual relaxation of prevention and control policies, we built and ran a susceptible-exposed-infective-removed-susceptible-quarantined model incorporating self-isolation to predict future cases of COVID-19.
Results:
Four waves of outbreaks were predicted to occur in November 2023, and in April, July, and November 2024. The first two waves were predicted to be more severe, with the maximum number of infected cases reaching 18.97% (269 million) and 8.77% (124 million) of the country's population, respectively, while the rest were predicted to affect a maximum of < 3%.
Conclusions:
Future outbreaks are expected to occur at shorter intervals but last for longer durations. COVID-19 epidemics in China are expected to subside after November 2024.
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