How do water utilities' decisions perpetuate theft in informal settlements? Collaborative systems analysis in Accra,...

The world is not on track to attain universal access to safely managed drinking water by 2030, and urban water utilities in the global South struggle to keep up with rising demand. Non-revenue water losses are high for these utilities, but little is known about the causes of commercial losses, specifically theft. This study examines cause-effect relationships between utility decision making and water theft in informal settlements, where household connections are uncommon. A collaborative systems thinking approach was used to map and analyze these relationships within a causal loop diagram, which was created through direct involvement and/or data collection from over 100 stakeholders in Accra, Ghana. Three archetypal patterns influencing non-revenue water loss are revealed (Limits to Growth, Fixes that Backfire, and Success to the Successful), which explain how theft is propagated in an environment of undervalued water, minimal law enforcement, and low expectations of infrastructure and service quality. The utility's decision to reduce piped water supply to the settlement - an effort to combat non-revenue water loss - eventually leads to the domination of theft throughout the system, as legally operating vendors struggle to remain viable and continue paying utility bills. Recommendations include shifting system goals and creating two structural changes: 1) connecting legal vendor sales to utility income from the community, which would be inherent in a typical metered system, and 2) connecting utility income from the community to locally available funds for infrastructure investment. These changes, implemented through a cooperative agreement between the utility and informal vendors, would improve piped water service, sustain legal vending businesses, and lower non-revenue water losses without the capital costs of metered connections.