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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 26, 2025

Surface Renewal: An Advanced Micrometeorological Method for Measuring and Processing Field-Scale Energy Flux Density Data

Surface Renewal: An Advanced Micrometeorological Method for Measuring and Processing Field-Scale Energy Flux Density Data

Published on: December 12, 2013

A long-term decline in downward surface solar radiation.

Fengfei Song^1,2, Yudi Mao^1,3, Shichu Liu^1,3,4

¹Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China.

National Science Review

|February 24, 2025

Summary

Downward surface solar radiation (DSSR) declined globally from 1959-2014 due to greenhouse gases and aerosols. Future DSSR depends on climate scenarios, with reduced aerosols and moderate warming suggesting a brighter outlook.

Keywords:

CMIP6 climate models anthropogenic aerosols emission scenarios greenhouse gases solar radiation

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Area of Science:

Earth System Science
Climate Science
Atmospheric Science

Background:

Downward surface solar radiation (DSSR) is crucial for Earth's climate system.
Past decadal fluctuations in land-based DSSR are documented.
Understanding DSSR trends is vital for climate change assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze global DSSR trends from 1959 to 2014.
To quantify the contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols to DSSR changes.
To project future DSSR variations based on climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

Utilized station observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.
Analyzed decadal trends in DSSR.
Differentiated the impacts of GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols.

Main Results:

A consistent global decline in DSSR was observed between 1959 and 2014.
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols had comparable contributions to this decline.
GHG influence, primarily through temperature-driven water vapor increases, became more dominant in the satellite era.
Future DSSR changes are predictable using global mean surface temperature (GMST) and aerosol concentrations.

Conclusions:

Future DSSR trends are sensitive to climate change scenarios (e.g., SSP245/SSP126).
Reduced aerosol concentrations and moderate warming in certain scenarios may halt or reverse the DSSR decline.
These findings suggest a potentially brighter future regarding surface solar radiation.