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PROJECTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON INTER-EPIDEMIC RISK OF RIFT VALLEY FEVER ACROSS EAST AFRICA.

Evan A Eskew1, Erin Clancey2, Deepti Singh3

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change is projected to significantly increase the risk of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in East Africa. By 2080, over 117 million people may be at risk, a fourfold increase, highlighting the need for enhanced surveillance and control measures.

Keywords:
Coupled Model Intercomparison Projectemerging infectious diseasemachine learningshared socioeconomic pathwaysvector-borne diseasezoonosis

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Climate Change Impact
  • Zoonotic Diseases

Background:

  • Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease causing epidemics in East Africa.
  • Understanding climate change impacts on inter-epidemic RVF is limited.
  • This study focuses on Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Project inter-epidemic RVF risk under future climate scenarios.
  • Estimate the future population at risk of inter-epidemic RVF.
  • Inform public health strategies for RVF mitigation.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a predictive model using inter-epidemic RVF outbreak data and spatial predictors.
  • Validated the model with human RVFV serological data.
  • Projected risk for 2021-2080 under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370).

Main Results:

  • Inter-epidemic RVF risk shows seasonality, peaking May-July.
  • Future climate scenarios indicate increased risk in January-March.
  • High-risk areas include east Kenya, southeast Tanzania, and southwest Uganda.
  • By 2061-2080, over 117 million people may be at risk, a fourfold increase from historical estimates.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change will alter the inter-epidemic RVF risk landscape, with short rains driving increased January-March risk.
  • Mitigation requires enhanced disease surveillance, prevention, and control in identified risk hotspots.