Impacts of heatwaves on electricity reliability: Evidence from power outage data in China

Heatwaves, driven by climate change, have increasingly challenged energy systems with increased demand and reduced supply, leading to power outages. This study empirically examines the impact of heatwaves on power outages, employing fixed-effects models and using high-frequency outage data from China (2019-2021). The results indicate that heatwaves increase the frequency of outages by 3.9%-4.0% and extend their duration by 7.9%-8.3%. Additionally, each degree of temperature rise increases outages by 0.1%, and an additional heatwave day raises outages by 0.5%. We also observed heterogeneity in outage impacts across different socio-demographic groups. Furthermore, projections under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 show that outages will increase by 5.2%-12.5% in 2030 and 7.4%-20.3% in 2050. These findings underscore the urgency of grid upgrades and provide insights for resource allocation to adaptation to climate change.