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Drivers' long-term crash risks associated with being ticketed for speeding
1University of Canterbury, New Zealand; New Zealand Police, Wellington, New Zealand.
Introduction:
This research analyzes the relationship between police-issued tickets for speeding and the crash risk of those drivers, in New Zealand, between 2015-2019.
Method:
The main data are constructed through data-matching license details of crash outcomes with all officer-issued tickets for speeding between 2015-2016 (N = 534,935). The sub-group of drivers that accumulate tickets is compared to a coarsened exact matched set of drivers of the same age.
Results:
There is a strong relationship between the number of tickets a person has in a two-year period (2015-16) and the likelihood of a crash outcome (2017-2019). However, the accumulation of tickets is not the best predictor of crash likelihood. A combination of the excess in speed and the accumulation of tickets increases the relative odds of a subsequent crash. These results are discussed considering the threshold at which New Zealand criminalizes alcohol-relating offending (notionally 4.2 times the base rate crash risk). The same rate of elevated crash risk exists when a driver has one ticket for being 10 km/h over the speed limit and has another speeding ticket within two years.
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