Hypoglycemia Prediction in Type 1 Diabetes With Electrocardiography Beat Ensembles

Current methods to detect hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes (T1D) require invasive sensors (ie, continuous glucose monitors, CGMs) that generally have low accuracy in the hypoglycemic range. A forward-looking alternative is to monitor physiological changes induced by hypoglycemia that can be measured non-invasively using, eg, electrocardiography (ECG). However, current methods require extraction of fiduciary points in the ECG signal (eg, to estimate QT interval), which is challenging in ambulatory settings.

To address this issue, we present a machine-learning model that uses (1) convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to extract morphological information from raw ECG signals without the need to identify fiduciary points and (2) ensemble learning to aggregate predictions from multiple ECG beats. We evaluate the model on an experimental data set that contains ECG and CGM recordings over a period of 14 days from ten participants with T1D. We consider two testing scenarios, one that divides ECG data according to CGM readings (CGM-split) and another that divides ECG data on a day-to-day basis (day-split)Results:We find that models trained using CGM-splits tend to produce overly optimistic estimates of hypoglycemia prediction, whereas day-splits provide more realistic estimates, which are consistent with the intrinsic accuracy of CGM devices. More importantly, we find that aggregating predictions from multiple ECG beats using ensemble learning significantly improves predictions at the beat level, though these improvements have large inter-individual differences.

Deep learning models and ensemble learning can extract and aggregate morphological information in ECG signals that is predictive of hypoglycemia. Using two validation procedures, we estimate an upper bound on the accuracy of ECG hypoglycemia prediction of 81% equal error rate and a lower bound of 60%. Further improvements may be achieved using big-data approaches that require longitudinal data from a large cohort of participants.