Predicting Stress-Strain Curve with Confidence: Balance Between Data Minimization and Uncertainty Quantification by a...

Driven by polymer processing-property data, machine learning (ML) presents an efficient paradigm in predicting the stress-strain curve. However, it is generally challenged by (i) the deficiency of training data, (ii) the one-to-many issue of processing-property relationship (i.e., aleatoric uncertainty), and (iii) the unawareness of model uncertainty (i.e., epistemic uncertainty). Here, leveraging a Bayesian neural network (BNN) and a recently proposed dual-architected model for curve prediction, we introduce a dual Bayesian model that enables accurate prediction of the stress-strain curve while distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty at each processing condition. The model is trained using a Taguchi array dataset that minimizes the data size while maximizing the representativeness of 27 samples in a 4D processing parameter space, significantly reducing data requirements. By incorporating hidden layers and output-distribution layers, the model quantifies both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, aligning with experimental data fluctuations, and provides a 95% confidence interval for stress-strain predictions at each processing condition. Overall, this study establishes an uncertainty-aware framework for curve property prediction with reliable, modest uncertainty at a small data size, thus balancing data minimization and uncertainty quantification.