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Updated: Jun 23, 2026

Phage Phenomics: Physiological Approaches to Characterize Novel Viral Proteins

Phage Phenomics: Physiological Approaches to Characterize Novel Viral Proteins

Published on: June 11, 2015

Investigating Mpox Strain Dynamics Using Computational and Data-Driven Approaches.

Isaiah Oke Idisi¹, Kayode Oshinubi², Vigbe Benson Sewanu³

¹Department of Mathematical Sciences, Federal University of Technology, Akure PMB 704, Ondo, Nigeria.

|February 26, 2025

Summary

This study models Mpox (monkeypox) transmission dynamics for Clade I and Clade II, finding that reducing contact rates is key to controlling both viral strains. Mathematical insights reveal strain-specific factors influencing spread.

Keywords:

Mpox transmission dynamics data-driven modeling mathematical modeling scenario simulation statistical fitting strain-specific epidemiology

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Mathematical Biology
Virology

Background:

Mpox outbreaks involve multiple viral strains, necessitating nuanced transmission models.
Understanding strain-specific dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and validate a data-driven mathematical model for Mpox transmission dynamics.
To analyze the impact of two Mpox clades (Clade I and Clade II) on transmission patterns.
To evaluate control strategies by examining the basic reproduction number (R0) and contact rates.

Main Methods:

Utilized a compartmental epidemiological model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, hospitalized, recovered) incorporating human-mammal transmission and two Mpox clades.
Validated the model using weekly WHO data from Spain, Italy, Nigeria, and DRC (2022-2024) via non-linear least-squares fitting and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE).
Performed time-series analysis, scenario simulations, and mathematical analysis of model properties (positivity, boundedness, stability).

Main Results:

Model simulations indicated that increased effective contact rates lead to the dominance of prevalent Mpox clades in specific countries.
Strain-specific dynamics and infection proportions significantly influence the basic reproduction number (R0).
The mathematical model demonstrated superior fit compared to statistical models, highlighting the importance of clade-specific analysis.

Conclusions:

Effective control of Mpox requires strategies targeting the reduction of effective contact rates to mitigate the spread of both clades.
Strain-specific modeling provides critical insights into Mpox epidemiology and informs targeted public health responses.
The study offers a robust framework for analyzing multi-strain pathogen dynamics in diverse populations.