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Structured Demographic Buffering: A Framework to Explore the Environmental Components and Demographic Mechanisms
Samuel J L Gascoigne1,2, Maja Kajin1,3, Shripad Tuljapurkar4
1Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Natural populations can buffer environmental stochasticity through demographic buffering. This study reveals that environmental variance, not autocorrelation, most influences buffering, impacting population structure and rates differently.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Population Dynamics
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Environmental stochasticity critically affects population viability.
- Natural populations exhibit demographic buffering to mitigate environmental unpredictability.
- Understanding the drivers of demographic buffering remains a challenge.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a framework for assessing environmental components influencing demographic buffering.
- To investigate the demographic mechanisms underlying these impacts.
- To differentiate the roles of environmental variance and autocorrelation.
Main Methods:
- Utilized integral projection models (IPMs).
- Analyzed temporal autocorrelation and variance in demographic rates.
- Examined population structure and demographic rates as mechanisms.
Main Results:
- Demographic buffering is more sensitive to environmental variance than autocorrelation.
- Environmental variance impacts demographic buffering via demographic rates.
- Environmental autocorrelation influences demographic buffering through population structure.
Conclusions:
- Environmental variance is a stronger driver of demographic buffering than autocorrelation.
- Distinct environmental components operate through different demographic mechanisms.
- This framework advances our understanding of population resilience to environmental change.
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