Biochar price forecasting: A novel methodology for enhancing market stability and economic viability

The co-production of char and liquid fuel, marketed as carbon-sequestering biochar, presents an economic opportunity, particularly when biofuel prices are low. However, the biochar market remains underdeveloped, with significant price volatility complicating techno-economic assessments (TEA). This variability arises from heterogeneous biochar properties and its diverse applications across agriculture, forestry, and environmental remediation. While biochar adoption has increased in recent years, price uncertainty remains a key barrier to broader market penetration. Additionally, although regulatory frameworks in many regions discourage biowaste landfilling, inefficient valorization pathways still lead to significant biomass underutilization. Thus, the absence of a publicly available biochar price database hinders the validation of TEA simulations and limits market transparency. To address this gap, we compile and analyze a novel dataset of biochar prices and evaluate their temporal dynamics using exponential smoothing forecasting models over a 15-year horizon. Our approach incorporates damped trends and prediction intervals to provide an objective measure of price uncertainty, in contrast to the subjective assignments found in prior TEA studies. While the limited number of available observations presents challenges, this work represents a first step toward systematic biochar price forecasting. By introducing a reproducible methodology for biochar price estimation, this study contributes to market stabilization efforts and supports the broader adoption of biochar in sustainable industries.