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Updated: May 25, 2025
12:44
Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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Estimating water scarcity risks under climate change: A provincial perspective in China
Ying Wang1, Chenyang Shuai1,2, Xi Chen3
1School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China.
Summary
China faces growing water scarcity risk (WSR), projected to increase from $4.6 trillion in 2020 to $5 trillion by 2030. This impacts local and virtual water scarcity risk (LWSR and VWSR) due to climate change.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Research
- Economic Impact Analysis
Background:
- Water is vital for economic production, but scarcity poses significant risks.
- Water scarcity risk (WSR) impacts local (LWSR) and distant regions via trade (VWSR).
- Climate change intensifies water scarcity, necessitating updated risk assessments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a comprehensive model assessing LWSR and VWSR in China under climate change.
- To quantify the economic impact of water scarcity across Chinese provinces.
- To identify high-risk regions and sectors for targeted policy interventions.
Main Methods:
- Integrated modeling of environmental flows, water withdrawal, supply, economic output, and trade networks.
- Assessment of local water scarcity risk (LWSR) and virtual water scarcity risk (VWSR).
- Analysis of climate change impacts on water scarcity risk across Chinese provinces.
Main Results:
- China's total WSR is projected to grow from $4.6 trillion (2020) to $5 trillion (2030).
- LWSR and VWSR are projected to increase from $0.9 and $3.7 trillion (2020) to $1.0 and $4.0 trillion (2030), respectively.
- Identified key provinces and economic sectors vulnerable to high water scarcity risk.
Conclusions:
- Climate change significantly elevates water scarcity risk in China.
- Understanding spatial heterogeneity in environmental flow requirements is crucial.
- Findings support the development of targeted strategies for climate change mitigation and water resource management.
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