Estimated attribution of the RFS Program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the Bioenergy Scenario Model.

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Energy policy
• Agricultural economics

Background:

• Governmental policies support biofuels globally for environmental, geopolitical, and economic reasons.
• Debate exists regarding the effectiveness and net environmental impact of biofuel policies.
• Previous studies suggested the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program was not the primary driver of U.S. ethanol production (2005-2020).

Purpose of the Study:

• To retrospectively determine the drivers of U.S. biodiesel production from 2002-2020.
• To quantify the contribution of the RFS Program versus other factors, including the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC).
• To compare the RFS Program's impact on biodiesel versus corn ethanol.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Bioenergy Scenario Model, a system dynamics model.
• Retrospectively apportioned historical biodiesel production.
• Analyzed influential drivers: RFS Program, BTC, California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and economic factors.

Main Results:

• From 2002-2020, the RFS Program accounted for approximately 36% of U.S. biodiesel production.
• The Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC) accounted for about 35% of production.
• Other factors contributed the remaining biodiesel production.

Conclusions:

• The RFS Program's effect on biodiesel production was substantial, appearing larger than its effect on corn ethanol.
• Governmental policies can have disparate impacts on different biofuel types.
• Findings inform the design of future biofuel support policies.