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Interventions for SARS-CoV-2 prevention among Jailed adults: A network-based modeling analysis
Isaac Schneider1, Karina Wallrafen-Sam1, Shanika Kennedy1
1Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|March 3, 2025
Summary
Jail COVID-19 prevention strategies, including vaccination, contact tracing, and population reduction through release, were modeled. Jail release showed the highest impact, averting nearly 20% of infections, highlighting the importance of combined interventions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Network Science
Background:
- Airborne pathogens pose risks in high-density settings like jails.
- Georgia has the highest rate of citizens under correctional supervision.
- Low COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Georgia jails necessitated non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of vaccination, contact tracing, and jail release on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a jail setting.
- To model the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in high-density correctional facilities.
- To assess the combined effects of multiple prevention strategies.
Main Methods:
- A network-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model was used, parameterized with data from Fulton County Jail.
- Simulations included cell-level and block-level contact networks over a 185-day period.
- Key metrics included cumulative incidence, infections averted (NIA), and percentage of infections averted (PIA).
Main Results:
- Cell-level contact tracing alone was ineffective (3.2% PIA).
- Jail release strategies averted nearly 20% of infections with a 13% population reduction.
- Combined interventions, including vaccination or increased jail release, significantly improved effectiveness.
Conclusions:
- Combination intervention approaches are crucial for reducing COVID-19 and future respiratory virus morbidity in jails.
- Jail release, even with modest population reduction, is a highly effective strategy.
- These interventions offer secondary protection to the wider community.
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