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Increasing Research Productivity and Step 2 Score Among Matched Orthopaedic Surgery Residents: A Forecasting Analysis

Benjamin M Varieur¹, Ryan C White, Christopher M Bono

¹From the Loyola University Chicago Stritch School of Medicine, Maywood, IL (Varieur and White), and the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (Varieur and Bono).

The Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons

|March 4, 2025

Summary

Orthopaedic surgery residency applicants will need more research and higher scores in the future. Projections show significant increases in publications and United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 2 scores by 2040.

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Area of Science:

Medical Education
Surgical Residency Matching
Orthopaedic Surgery

Background:

Orthopaedic surgery is a highly competitive residency specialty.
Understanding applicant trends is crucial for program success.

Purpose of the Study:

To evaluate trends in National Resident Matching Program data for orthopaedic surgery residency applicants.
To project future averages for successful orthopaedic surgery residency candidates.

Main Methods:

Utilized data from "Charting Outcomes in the Match" reports (2014-2024).
Analyzed characteristics of US allopathic medical school seniors matching into orthopaedic surgery.
Employed regression analysis to predict research productivity and USMLE Step 2 scores through 2040.

Main Results:

Research productivity shows an exponential increase (R2 = 0.988, P < 0.001).
USMLE Step 2 scores demonstrate a linear trend (R2 = 0.925, P = 0.002).
By 2040, applicants may average 165.6 research outputs and a Step 2 score of 266.

Conclusions:

Research output and USMLE Step 2 scores for matched orthopaedic surgery applicants are projected to rise.
Findings can guide medical schools and residency programs in optimizing success.
Re-evaluation of these metrics' sustainability and equity is suggested due to perpetual increases.