Model-based management of macrophytes in shallow lakes under warming

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Freshwater Ecosystems
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Macrophytes are vital for freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem services.
• These habitats are threatened by climate change, human disturbance, and invasive species.
• Effective local management strategies are crucial for freshwater macrophyte conservation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict macrophyte distribution and diversity under current and future warming scenarios.
• To identify conservation management hotspots in southwestern French lakes.
• To inform adaptive management strategies for freshwater macrophyte communities.

Main Methods:

• Joint species distribution modeling (JSDM) was used with presence-absence data and environmental variables.
• Environmental variables included temperature (current and +2°C), land use, and topography.
• Percentile-threshold spatial prioritization identified conservation hotspots.

Main Results:

• Macrophyte habitat suitability is significantly influenced by land use and human accessibility.
• Warming temperatures generally decrease macrophyte habitat suitability and native species diversity.
• Native isoetid species are more vulnerable to warming than invasive species, indicating potential community shifts.

Conclusions:

• Conservation management hotspots were identified, requiring immediate adaptive management.
• Strategies should include invasive species control and native species restoration, particularly for isoetids.
• Proactive management is essential to maintain ecosystem services in freshwater lakes.