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Related Concept Videos

Prediction Intervals01:03

Prediction Intervals

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The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y. 
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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error00:59

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An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
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Organisms that are well-adapted to their environment are more likely to survive and reproduce. However, natural selection does not lead to perfectly adapted organisms. Several factors constrain natural selection.
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Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error01:10

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The atomic mass of an element varies due to the relative ratio of its isotopes. A sample's relative proportion of oxygen isotopes influences its average atomic mass. For instance, if we were to measure the atomic mass of oxygen from a sample, the mass would be a weighted average of the isotopic masses of oxygen in that sample. Since a single sample is not likely to perfectly reflect the true atomic mass of oxygen for all the molecules of oxygen on Earth, the mass we obtain from this...
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Accuracy, limits, and approximation01:28

Accuracy, limits, and approximation

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Accuracy, limits, and approximations are common in many fields, especially in engineering calculations. These concepts are imperative for ensuring that a given value is as close as possible to its true value.
Accuracy is defined as the closeness of the measured value to the true or actual value. In engineering mechanics, repeated measurements are taken during theoretical or experimental analyses to ensure that the result is precise and accurate.
The accuracy of any solution is based on the...
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 24, 2025

Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat
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On the unknowable limits to prediction

Jiani Yan1,2,3, Charles Rahal4,5

  • 1Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Demographic Science Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. jiani.yan@sociology.ox.ac.uk.

Nature Computational Science
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