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Public concern of child maltreatment in China from 2011 to 2024 and its socioeconomic determinants: An Infodemiology
1Department of Sociology, McGill University, Montréal, Canada.
Background:
Child maltreatment represents a significant public health issue affecting children's well-being. In China, traditional cultural beliefs and social factors contribute to substantial underreporting and underestimation of maltreatment cases. Infodemiological approaches offer new perspectives for examining this hidden social phenomenon.
Objectives:
This study aims to analyze the temporal evolution of public concern about child maltreatment in China, examine its socioeconomic determinants, and forecast future trends.
Materials:
I utilized the Baidu Index to obtain search volumes for child maltreatment-related keywords from 2011 to 2024, which were then integrated with provincial-level socioeconomic indicators across China.
Methods:
Structural breakpoint analysis, STL decomposition and ARIMA modeling were employed to analyze temporal patterns and generate forecasts. Standardized regression analysis was used to explore the associations between socioeconomic factors and public concern.
Results:
Public concern about child maltreatment exhibited four distinct phases: rapid increase (2011-2014), stable (2014-2018), slow decrease (2018-2022), and accelerated decrease (2022-present). Forecasts indicate a continuing decline next two years. Urbanization rate (β = 0.59, p < .001) and fertility rate (β = 0.36, p < .001) demonstrated significant positive associations with public concern, while sex ratio showed negative correlation (β= - 0.07, p < .001). Significant regional disparities were evident, with eastern regions maintaining consistently higher levels of concern while western regions showed a marked decline.
Conclusion:
The findings reveal that public concern about child maltreatment in China is currently in a declining cycle, especially in western regions. The temporal and spatial pattern correlates closely with levels of social development and demographic structure. A more comprehensive public concern monitoring system needs to be established.
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