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A public opinion propagation model for technological disasters.

Yi Zhang1, Wanjie Tang2, Ting Ni3

  • 1Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Management School, Zigong, 643000, China. zhangyiyi@scu.edu.cn.

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Public opinion dynamics during technological disasters can be modeled using an infectious disease approach. Effective government response is crucial for managing public perception, even when accountability is unclear.

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Area of Science:

  • Disaster Management
  • Public Opinion Dynamics
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Technological disasters significantly impact public perception.
  • Understanding public opinion spread is critical for effective crisis management.
  • Existing models may not fully capture the nuances of technological disaster public opinion.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a public opinion dissemination model for technological disasters.
  • To identify key factors influencing public opinion spread.
  • To provide policy recommendations for managing public opinion during such events.

Main Methods:

  • Adaptation of the infectious disease model for technological disasters.
  • Application of differential equation stability theory and the next-generation matrix method.
  • Case study analysis using microblog data from the Shiyan gas explosion.

Main Results:

  • Disaster severity, government response, and accountability are identified as key drivers of public opinion spread.
  • The developed model demonstrates viability and effectiveness compared to existing models.
  • A positive government response can mitigate negative public opinion, irrespective of accountability.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed model offers a robust framework for analyzing public opinion during technological disasters.
  • Effective government communication and response strategies are vital for public opinion management.
  • Policy interventions should focus on enhancing government responsiveness and transparency.