A novel malaria mathematical model: integrating vector and non-vector transmission pathways
Emmanuel Akowe1, Queeneth Ojoma Ahman2, Benedict Celestine Agbata1
1Department of Mathematics/Statistics, Confluence University of Science and Technology, Osara, Kogi State, Nigeria.
Background:
Malaria remains one of the most significant global health challenges, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Despite ongoing control efforts, malaria transmission persists due to complex biological, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Traditional malaria models have primarily focused on vector-borne transmission, overlooking the growing importance of non-vector transmission pathways, such as blood transfusions, congenital transmission, and human-to-human transmission through healthcare settings.
Methods:
A novel mathematical model was developed to integrate both vector-borne and non-vector transmission routes. The model expands the traditional Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework by incorporating compartments for vaccinated and non-vector exposed human populations, as well as dynamics for both human and mosquito populations. Numerical simulations were performed using MATLAB to evaluate the impact of vaccination, vector control, non-vector control, and treatment strategies.
Results:
The results indicate that vaccination significantly reduces susceptibility to malaria, with numerical simulations showing an approximate 43% reduction in the susceptible human population. However, vector control remains critical in limiting exposure, and non-vector transmission pathways including blood transfusions, congenital transmission, and direct human-to-human transmission pose a substantial risk even in regions with effective mosquito control. This underscores the need for integrated strategies that address both vector and non-vector transmission routes.
Conclusions:
Combining vaccination efforts with robust vector control, improved healthcare practices, and stringent non-vector transmission prevention measures is essential to effectively reduce malaria transmission. Sustained interventions, including improved blood screening and safe medical practices, are necessary to prevent malaria resurgence, particularly in high-transmission settings. This model provides valuable insights into malaria dynamics and offers a framework for designing more effective public health policies and strategies for malaria eradication.
