Evolution of physician resources in China (2003-2021): quantity, quality, structure, and geographic distribution

Physicians are an indispensable part of the healthcare system, crucial for maintaining public health. Since the issues in market-oriented healthcare reform emerged in 2003, China has implemented a series of healthcare system reforms to improve the equitable distribution of medical resources. The impact of these reform measures on the physician workforce has yet to be systematically assessed.

Data were sourced from the China Health Statistics Yearbook from 2003 to 2021. We conducted a detailed descriptive statistical analysis of physicians' quantity, quality, and structure. The Gini coefficient was calculated to evaluate national physician distribution equity, and the Theil index was further used to analyze interprovincial and intraprovincial inequality trends in the physician workforce. Global Moran's I and hotspot analysis were employed to examine the spatial heterogeneity and clustering of physician labor.

The number of physicians increased from 1.87 million in 2003 to 4.29 million in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 4.72%. The male-to-female ratio changed from 1:0.69 to 1:0.92. The main educational level of physicians elevated to a bachelor's degree (45.9%). However, the proportion of young doctors (< 35 years) declined from 41.1 to 26.0%. The Gini coefficient decreased from 0.140 in 2003 to 0.071 in 2021, and the Theil index dropped from 0.091 to 0.057. Decomposition of the Theil index revealed that overall differences in physician distribution primarily stemmed from intraprovincial inequality rather than interprovincial inequality. Global Moran's I decreased from 0.304 in 2003 to 0.109 in 2015 and then increased to 0.444 in 2021. Hotspot analysis showed uneven physician distribution, with high-value clusters in northern regions and low-value clusters in southern regions.

Over the past 19 years, despite improvements in the quantity and quality of physicians, the decline in young physicians and worsening regional disparities pose challenges.