Prenatal prediction of child abuse and neglect: a prospective study

Five hundred eighty-seven women in a combined Maternity-Infant, Children and Youth project were interviewed at between 3 and 6 months of gestation by a skilled masters degree social worker (M.S.W.) using a Family Stress Checklist developed at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center. Only 7% of the women were scored as "high risk" for serious parenting problems. Neither single status nor teenage status increased the risk significantly. A review of charts of 100 of the children whose mothers had been considered "at risk" was conducted 2 to 2.5 years later, and compared with 100 charts on children whose mothers had been considered at "no risk," giving the following results: Twenty-five children had experienced failure to thrive, neglect or abuse. Twenty of these were from the original high risk mothers, giving an incidence of neglect/abuse in that group of 52%. The no risk control group of 100 mothers showed a 2% incidence of abuse/neglect; a low risk group showed a 4% incidence of abuse/neglect; and a mid-score group had an abuse/neglect rate of 5%. The scale proved a remarkably accurate predictor, with a sensitivity (percent correct negatives) of 89%. The authors suggest use of such scales prenatally or even before conception as a step toward the development of true preventive measures.