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Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSO.
Chuanyu Liu1,2, Fan Wang3,4,5, Armin Köhl6
1Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), Qingdao, China. chuanyu.liu@qdio.ac.cn.
Nature Communications
|March 8, 2025
Summary
Ocean mixing significantly impacts central Pacific El Niño (ENSO) events, driving diabatic warming and cooling. This finding is crucial for improving ENSO predictions, especially in the central Pacific region.
Area of Science:
- * Climate Science
- * Oceanography
- * Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Background:
- * El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows stronger signals in the central Pacific (CP) but has declining prediction skill.
- * Subsurface ocean mixing's role in ENSO dynamics, particularly diabatic heat transfer, remains under-examined due to data limitations.
- * Existing ENSO models may lack crucial CP-specific feedback mechanisms.
Purpose of the Study:
- * To develop and apply a novel model for estimating ocean mixing and turbulent heat flux using Argo profile data.
- * To investigate the influence of ocean mixing-induced diabatic processes on ENSO dynamics in both CP and eastern Pacific (EP) regions.
- * To identify key missing components in current ENSO prediction frameworks.
Main Methods:
- * Development of an Argo profile data-based model to estimate subsurface ocean mixing.
- * Calculation of turbulent heat flux based on estimated mixing.
- * Analysis of the feedback between diabatic warming/cooling from mixing and ENSO variability.
Main Results:
- * The study successfully generated extensive estimates of subsurface ocean mixing and turbulent heat flux.
- * A significant positive feedback loop was identified between ocean mixing and diabatic warming/cooling in the CP ENSO.
- * This diabatic effect was found to be the dominant driver of sea surface temperature changes in the CP region, unlike in the EP ENSO.
Conclusions:
- * Ocean mixing plays a critical, previously underestimated role in CP ENSO dynamics through diabatic processes.
- * Current ENSO prediction models require the incorporation of diabatic CP ENSO feedback mechanisms for improved accuracy.
- * The developed mixing estimation model provides valuable data for future climate research and prediction efforts.
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