Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 23, 2025
05:37
An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
2.0K
Multi-Centre External Validation of a Nomogram for 10-Year Periodontal Tooth Loss Prediction
Matteo Serroni1,2, Andrea Ravidà2, Pasquale Santamaria3
1Periodontology Unit, Department of Innovative Technologies in Medicine & Dentistry, University 'G. D'Annunzio' of Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy.
Journal of Clinical Periodontology
|March 10, 2025
Summary
A new nomogram, validated using data from 459 patients, accurately predicts 10-year tooth loss risk in periodontitis. This tool, based on the 2018 classification, shows cross-site applicability for risk assessment before active periodontal therapy.
Area of Science:
- Periodontology
- Dental Public Health
- Biostatistics
Background:
- The 2018 classification of periodontal diseases requires external validation as a risk assessment tool.
- A nomogram, a graphical representation of a statistical model, can aid in predicting disease progression and outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To externally validate the 2018 periodontal disease classification using a nomogram.
- To assess the nomogram's ability to predict 10-year tooth loss risk due to periodontitis.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 459 periodontitis patients across four cohorts (US and UK).
- Periodontitis staging and grading before active periodontal therapy (APT).
- Model discrimination (AUC-ROC) and calibration (CITL, calibration slope, E:O ratio) were evaluated, with recalibration methods tested.
Main Results:
- The original nomogram achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.72 with poor calibration.
- Isotonic recalibration improved AUC-ROC to 0.77 and enhanced calibration metrics (E-statistic=1.00, CITL=0.00, slope=1.00).
Conclusions:
- A nomogram derived from the 2018 periodontal disease classification is a viable prognostic tool.
- The tool demonstrates cross-site applicability for predicting 10-year tooth loss risk before APT in industrialized countries.
