Predictive Significance of Admission-Day Blood Routine-Derived Indices for 30-Day Mortality Risk in Elderly Patients...

Area of Science:

• Geriatric Medicine
• Infectious Diseases
• Hematology

Background:

• Bacterial pneumonia poses a significant mortality risk in elderly patients.
• Early identification of high-risk individuals is crucial for timely intervention.
• Hematological indices offer a readily available tool for risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the prognostic value of routine hematological indices in predicting 30-day mortality.
• To identify key hematological markers associated with increased mortality risk in elderly bacterial pneumonia patients.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 292 elderly patients with bacterial pneumonia.
• Propensity score matching to compare survival and mortality groups.
• Statistical analyses including chi-square, Mann-Whitney U, Spearman correlation, ROC curves, and multivariate logistic regression.

Main Results:

• Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), and neutrophil-to-monocyte ratio (NMLR) were significantly elevated in the mortality group.
• NLR, SII, SIRI, and NMLR showed predictive value for 30-day mortality (AUCs ranging from 0.673 to 0.777).
• Multivariate logistic regression identified NLR and procalcitonin (PCT) as independent risk indicators.

Conclusions:

• Elevated NLR, SII, SIRI, and NMLR are associated with increased 30-day mortality in elderly patients with bacterial pneumonia.
• These hematological indices can serve as potential biomarkers for risk stratification.
• Further multicenter studies are warranted to validate these findings.