Investing in U.S. forests to mitigate climate change

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Mitigation
• Forestry

Background:

• U.S. federal policies increasingly support forest-based climate mitigation.
• Forests play a crucial role in carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation.
• Assessing the impact of current federal funding on achieving climate targets is essential.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the net carbon sequestration potential of U.S. forests under current federal funding for climate mitigation.
• To determine if these funds are sufficient to meet domestic climate targets for 2030 and 2050.
• To project future mitigation scenarios considering different carbon dioxide fertilization assumptions.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of current federal funds allocated to forest-based climate mitigation activities.
• Modeling of optimized investment pathways prioritizing the cheapest abatement options.
• Simulation of net forest carbon sequestration under two CO2 fertilization scenarios.

Main Results:

• Current federal investments (approx. $640 million annually) are projected to increase net carbon flux by 12% in 2030 (745 MtCO2/yr) and 17% in 2050 (786 MtCO2/yr).
• Accounting for CO2 fertilization enhances projected net forest carbon sequestration by 17% in 2030.
• Under CO2 fertilization, federal funds could achieve about 1 GtCO2 net sequestration by 2050.

Conclusions:

• Current U.S. federal funding for forest climate mitigation shows potential to significantly contribute to national climate targets.
• Optimized investment strategies and consideration of CO2 fertilization effects are key to maximizing forest carbon sequestration.
• Forest-based climate mitigation actions supported by federal funds are crucial for meeting both short-term and long-term climate goals.