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How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather
Timo Kelder1,2, Dorothy Heinrich3,4, Lisette Klok5
1Climate Adaptation Services Foundation (CAS), Bussum, The Netherlands. timo@climateadaptationservices.com.
Nature Communications
|March 11, 2025
Summary
Anticipating unprecedented weather hazards is crucial for global resilience. By understanding and preparing for extreme events, we can move beyond surprise and build robust disaster management and climate adaptation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Disaster Risk Reduction
- Environmental Management
Background:
- Unprecedented weather events are causing significant global impacts.
- Existing disaster management and climate adaptation practices have limitations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To overview methods for anticipating unprecedented weather hazards.
- To discuss how anticipation can enhance resilience.
- To explore transformative, incremental, and reactive adaptation strategies.
Main Methods:
- Review of anticipation methods for extreme weather.
- Analysis of disaster management and climate adaptation gaps.
- Framework for building resilience through various adaptation types.
Main Results:
- Anticipation methods can reduce surprise from extreme weather.
- Integrating transformative, incremental, and reactive adaptation builds long-term resilience.
- Proactive responsibility is key to managing weather-related risks.
Conclusions:
- Developing methods to anticipate unprecedented weather is essential for global resilience.
- A multi-faceted adaptation approach, including transformative strategies, is necessary.
- Societal responsibility in building resilience is paramount to mitigate impacts of extreme weather.
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