Assessment of ecological risk under different SSP-RCP scenarios of the Xinjiang province in China

The ecological research of regional land use and land cover change (LULCC) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios proposed by the IPCC has become a prominent topic. This study investigates the spatial distribution of ecological risks associated with land use and land cover changes in the arid and semi-arid regions of Xinjiang under future SSP-RCP scenarios. In this paper, LUCC data, climate data, and soil and topographic data under different scenarios in 2100 were adopted to construct the land use/land cover quality index (LQI), the climate quality index (CQI), and the soil quality index (SQI) respectively. Using Xinjiang as a case study, an integrated ecological risk model was constructed through the LQI, CQI and SQI. By 2100, LQI risk areas in Xinjiang will dominate, accounting for approximately 70% of the total area. Central Xinjiang, home to the largest desert in China-the Taklimakan Desert-predominantly consists of desert and Gobi, where LQI is generally better under the SSP-RCP126 scenario compared to other scenarios. In 2100, high CQI regions are primarily concentrated in the mountainous, Gobi, and desert areas of Xinjiang. The spatial distribution of SQI in Xinjiang remains consistent across different scenarios in 2100. Under the SSP-RCP126 and SSP-RCP245 scenarios, global warming is effectively mitigated, leading to a relatively favorable overall ecological risk scenario in Xinjiang. However, under the SSP-RCP370 and SSP-RCP585 scenarios, moderate, high, and extremely high ecological risk areas expand, covering approximately 50% of the total area.