Mortality of Head and Neck Cancer in China From 1990 to 2019: A Secondary Data Analysis

The rising global incidence of head and neck cancer imposes a growing burden on health systems. However, comprehensive analysis of mortality trends, particularly age, period, and cohort effects, remains limited.

This study aims to evaluate head and neck cancer mortality trends in China from 1990 to 2019, with a focus on age, period, and cohort effects.

A secondary data analysis was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, focusing on the Chinese population aged 20 years and older. The cancers examined included those of the lip-oral cavity, nasopharynx, other pharynx, larynx, and thyroid. Mortality data, including death numbers and age-standardized rates, were analyzed using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis to identify trends.

The study revealed that from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate for head and neck cancer in China decreased more significantly than the global average. Although the overall trend in China showed a decrease, there were sporadic increases, especially among males. In contrast, females exhibited a more consistent decline. The age-period-cohort analysis demonstrated increasing mortality with age, decreasing mortality over successive periods, and fluctuating cohort effects, with a marked decrease for cohorts born after 1930.

Overall, the mortality rate for head and neck cancer in China is declining, with age being a significant risk factor for mortality, and earlier-born cohorts facing higher risks. Continuous monitoring is essential to understand the impact of evolving clinical practice guidelines on the mortality of head and neck cancer.