Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 22, 2025
13:27
Exploring the Effects of Atmospheric Forcings on Evaporation: Experimental Integration of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Shallow Subsurface
Published on: June 8, 2015
8.7K
Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations
Isla R Simpson1, Tiffany A Shaw2, Paulo Ceppi3
1National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
Science Advances
|March 12, 2025
Summary
Climate models are increasingly able to represent historical climate change trends observed globally. This review details methods for comparing model predictions with real-world data to understand climate change impacts.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Earth System Science
- Environmental Modeling
Background:
- Anthropogenic climate change signals are becoming detectable in observational data.
- Climate or Earth System Models (ESMs) have long projected future climate scenarios.
- Societal impacts of climate change are escalating.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review the current capabilities of climate models in representing historical climate trends.
- To outline rigorous methodologies for comparing modeled and observed climate trends.
- To explore advanced techniques for identifying and resolving discrepancies between models and observations.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical climate data and model outputs.
- Development and application of robust comparison procedures for trends.
- Investigation of cutting-edge methods for discrepancy analysis.
Main Results:
- Climate models demonstrate growing skill in capturing observed historical climate trends.
- Established procedures facilitate reliable comparison of modeled and observed trends.
- Advanced methods are emerging for pinpointing sources of model-observation discrepancies.
Conclusions:
- The climate science community is well-positioned to confront model-simulated trends with observational records.
- Moving beyond quantification to understanding the drivers of discrepancies is crucial.
- Future confrontations between models and observations are vital for advancing climate science and prediction.
Related Concept Videos
01:50Global Climate Change
24.0K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.0K
01:16What is Climate?
18.1K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.1K
01:26Influence of Earth's Curvature and Atmospheric Refraction on Leveling
47
During leveling, the Earth's curvature and atmospheric refraction introduce deviations in the line of sight from a true horizontal reference. When the line of sight is leveled, it remains perpendicular to the plumb line only at a single point. Beyond this, it deviates due to the Earth’s curvature, represented by the correction C. For a sight distance D, the deviation can be derived using the relationship:This relationship shows that the deviation increases quadratically with distance.
47
02:06Conditions on Early Earth
88.6K
Around 4 billion years ago, oceans began to condense on earth while volcanic eruptions released nitrogen, carbon dioxide, methane, ammonia, and hydrogen into the primordial atmosphere. However, organisms with the characteristics of life were not initially present on earth. Scientists have used experimentation to determine how organisms evolved that could grow, reproduce, and maintain an internal environment.
88.6K
01:00The Water Cycle
24.0K
The Earth’s hydrosphere includes all of the areas where the storage and movement of water occurs. Since water is the basis of all living processes, the cycling of water is extremely important to ecosystem dynamics.
24.0K
01:12Precipitation Processes
359
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
359