How concerned should we be about broiler breeder fertility declines?

Area of Science:

• Animal Science
• Poultry Husbandry
• Agricultural Economics

Background:

• Broiler breeder fertility is crucial for modern poultry production.
• Recent years have seen increasing concerns regarding fertility and hatchability in the U.S. poultry industry.
• Declining trends pose a significant threat to the sustainability of poultry meat supply.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze U.S. broiler breeder fertility trends from 2013 to 2022.
• To identify key production metrics affected by declining fertility.
• To project future hatchability rates and emphasize the need for corrective actions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) data.
• Employed Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis to assess trends.
• Developed the Broiler Breeder Performance Index (BBPI) using Gaussian and Cauchy models.

Main Results:

• Significant declines observed in hatchability, chick livability, and production efficiency.
• MCMC analysis confirmed persistent downward trends with 95% credible intervals.
• BBPI projections indicate a continued decline below baseline values without intervention.

Conclusions:

• Urgent interventions are required to address the broiler breeder fertility crisis.
• Effective flock management and genetic selection strategies are vital.
• Addressing fertility issues is essential for the long-term sustainability of U.S. poultry production and global food security.