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Updated: May 22, 2025

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Increasing hourly heavy rainfall in Austria reflected in flood changes.

Klaus Haslinger1, Korbinian Breinl2, Lovrenc Pavlin2

  • 1Department for Climate Impact Research, GeoSphere Austria - Federal Agency for Geology, Geophysics, Climatology and Meteorology, Vienna, Austria. klaus.haslinger@geosphere.at.

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|March 13, 2025
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Heavy rainfall has increased significantly over the past four decades in Austria, with hourly downpours rising 15% and daily downpours 8%. This trend highlights the urgent need for climate adaptation in flood management, especially for smaller river catchments.

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Area of Science:

  • Climatology and Hydrology
  • Extreme Weather Event Analysis

Background:

  • Climate change is projected to intensify heavy rainfall events, leading to increased flooding.
  • Attributing past heavy rainfall changes has been challenging due to data limitations, especially for short durations.
  • Warmer atmospheres and altered circulation patterns are key drivers of increased heavy rainfall.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the temporal evolution of heavy rainfall changes over the last four decades in Austria.
  • To investigate the relationship between heavy rainfall trends, temperature, and atmospheric circulation.
  • To assess the consistency of rainfall changes with observed flood increases in different catchment sizes.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of a comprehensive dataset from 883 Austrian stations spanning 1900-2023.
  • Comparison of trends between two independent meteorological networks.
  • Correlation analysis with temperature data and atmospheric circulation indices.

Main Results:

  • An 8% increase in daily and a 15% increase in hourly heavy rainfall observed over the last four decades.
  • Hourly heavy rainfall increases correlate with temperature (7% per 1°C warming), aligning with Clausius-Clapeyron scaling.
  • Daily heavy rainfall increases correlate more strongly with atmospheric circulation indices than temperature.
  • Observed flood increases of ~8% in large catchments and ~25% in small catchments are consistent with rainfall trends.

Conclusions:

  • Significant increases in both daily and hourly heavy rainfall have occurred in Austria over recent decades.
  • Atmospheric circulation plays a more substantial role in daily heavy rainfall changes than previously assumed.
  • Climate adaptation measures for flood management are critically needed, particularly for smaller catchments due to amplified flood increases.