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Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023-2024 unlikely but not unexpected
Jens Terhaar1,2, Friedrich A Burger3,4, Linus Vogt5
1Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. jens.terhaar@unibe.ch.
Nature
|March 13, 2025
Summary
Record-breaking global ocean temperatures from April 2023 to March 2024 were exceptionally rare, a 1-in-512-year event due to warming trends. Climate models accurately simulate these extreme sea surface temperature jumps.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Global ocean surface temperatures reached record highs for over a year starting April 2023.
- This event surpassed previous records by 0.25°C, prompting investigation into its rarity and model representation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the exceptionality of the recent record-shattering global sea surface temperature (SST) jump.
- To assess the capability of climate models in simulating such extreme SST events.
Main Methods:
- Construction of observation-based synthetic time series to analyze SST jump frequency.
- Utilized 270 climate model simulations to evaluate model performance in replicating extreme SST events.
Main Results:
- A jump in global SST exceeding the previous record by 0.25°C is a 1-in-512-year event under current warming trends.
- Such an event would be virtually impossible without a global warming trend.
- Climate models successfully simulate these record-shattering SST jumps, validating their utility.
Conclusions:
- The 2023-2024 record SST jump was an extreme event, highly improbable without anthropogenic climate change.
- Climate models are reliable tools for understanding the drivers and impacts of extreme ocean warming events.
- Post-event, ocean surface temperatures are projected to return to the established long-term warming trend.
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