Model Predicting Survival in Intermediate-Stage HCC Patients Reclassified for TACE Based on the 2022 BCLC Criteria

Background/Objectives: The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was updated in 2022 to refine patient stratification, particularly in patients with intermediate-stage (BCLC B) HCC. Although transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) remains a key treatment for these patients, there is no prognostic model for survival outcomes based on the pretreatment factors of patients who meet the updated 2022 BCLC indications for TACE. The aim of this study was to develop a pretreatment risk model predicting overall survival (OS) in patients with intermediate-stage HCC and reclassified as candidates for TACE according to the updated 2022 BCLC criteria. Methods: This retrospective study included 658 HCC patients treated with first-line TACE according to the updated BCLC 2022 guidelines. Pretreatment factors such as the Child-Pugh score, tumor burden (up-to-11 criteria), bilobar tumor involvement, and serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were analyzed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of OS, with these factors subsequently incorporated into a risk prediction model. Results: Significant predictors of OS included Child-Pugh score ≥ 7, bilobar tumor involvement, beyond up-to-11 criteria, and AFP ≥ 400 ng/mL. A risk model was developed using these factors, stratifying patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. The median OS in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups was 53, 35, and 21 months, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed pretreatment risk prediction model may be useful for predicting OS and guiding TACE candidacy in intermediate-stage HCC patients based on the updated 2022 BCLC guidelines.