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This study introduces a new test to address biased causal effect estimates caused by self-censoring outcomes. The method uses a randomized incentive to validate assumptions, enabling accurate causal inference even with missing data.

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Area of Science:

  • Causal Inference
  • Biostatistics
  • Missing Data Methods

Background:

  • Missing outcomes can bias causal effect estimates, particularly when outcomes influence their own missingness (self-censoring).
  • Existing methods like the shadow variable approach have challenges in verifying their underlying assumptions.
  • Confounding bias further complicates accurate estimation in observational studies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a test for verifying identification assumptions in causal inference with self-censoring outcomes.
  • To provide a method for correcting both self-censoring and confounding bias.
  • To introduce an intuitive inverse probability weighting estimator for causal effects.

Main Methods:

  • Proposed a test utilizing a randomized incentive variable to encourage outcome reporting.
  • The test verifies if pre-treatment covariates block backdoor paths between treatment-outcome and treatment-missingness indicator.
  • Developed an inverse probability weighting estimator using treatment and response weights.

Main Results:

  • Demonstrated that the proposed test can verify assumptions sufficient for bias correction.
  • Showed that the treatment can serve as a shadow variable under verified conditions.
  • The inverse probability weighting estimator was shown to be effective in simulations.

Conclusions:

  • The new testing framework effectively addresses bias from self-censoring and confounding in causal inference.
  • The randomized incentive approach offers a practical way to validate necessary assumptions.
  • The study provides a robust method for identifying causal effects with missing outcomes.