Widespread ecological novelty across the terrestrial biosphere

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Conservation Biology
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Human activities are driving ecosystems toward unprecedented novel states.
• Understanding the drivers of these novel ecosystems is crucial for predicting future states and informing conservation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To map the global distribution of key drivers of ecological novelty: climate change, defaunation, and floristic disruption.
• To quantify the total novelty exposure across the terrestrial biosphere.
• To assess the novelty exposure within protected areas and key biodiversity areas.

Main Methods:

• Construction of global maps for climate change, defaunation, and floristic disruption.
• Synthesis of these drivers into a measure of total novelty exposure.
• Analysis of novelty exposure across different climatic regions, biomes, and designated conservation areas.

Main Results:

• The terrestrial biosphere exhibits widespread exposure to novel conditions, with 58% of the area experiencing high total novelty exposure.
• All climatic regions and biomes are significantly exposed to novelty.
• Climate change and defaunation are identified as the primary global drivers of novelty.
• Protected areas and key biodiversity areas show substantial novelty exposure (58% and 56% of cells, respectively).

Conclusions:

• Ecological novelty is a pervasive global phenomenon driven significantly by climate change and defaunation.
• Conservation areas are not immune to these novel conditions, underscoring the need for adaptive management.
• Further research into ecosystem and biodiversity responses to ecological novelty is essential for effective biosphere stewardship.