Changes in disease burden and epidemiological transitions
Gabriel Gulis1,2, Radka Zidkova3, Zdenek Meier3
1Unit for Health Promotion Research, University of Southern Denmark, Degnevej 14, 6700, Esbjerg, Denmark. ggulis@health.sdu.dk.
Scientific Reports
|March 16, 2025
Summary
This study introduces the Epidemiologic Transition Estimate (ETE) index to measure societal health shifts. The index reveals a faster transition in females and highlights varying progress across country income groups.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Demography
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Societies undergo epidemiological transitions marked by demographic, societal, and health shifts.
- Acute communicable diseases impact early mortality, while chronic diseases dominate the life course disease burden.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate the Epidemiologic Transition Estimate (ETE) index.
- To measure the stage of epidemiological transition across countries and sexes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) data from 1990-2019.
- Calculated the ETE index as the ratio of Years of Life Lost due to Disability (YLD) to Years of Life Lost (YLL).
- Analyzed data across 195 countries, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles.
Main Results:
- ETE index values varied significantly between males (0.131-1.067) and females (0.180-2.108).
- The epidemiological transition appears to progress more rapidly in females than males.
- A consistent increase in the ETE index was observed across five SDI-based country groups, indicating distinct transition stages.
Conclusions:
- The ETE index demonstrates robustness in assessing epidemiological transition progress.
- Findings suggest potential differences in transition speed between sexes.
- The index can inform future health and social care system planning to address disability and mortality burdens.
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